The bet was posted here for record-keeping purposes and so that the escrow system could work properly. It's certainly not a free-for-all match. I, too, could rally plenty of people on my side, some with long histories of trust on this platform, but that would obviously be inappropriate. The two of us signed up for a decision from DW and that is what we expect. Nothing more, nothing less.

I agree that rules should be strict and coherent. I tried to add some more details and clarity to the terms myself. But I did not imagine refund requests would be made in bad faith, so the bet wording was fairly casual, in parts ambiguous, and non-exhaustive. If I had a do-over I would probably have made the terms one or two pages to protect against exploitation (or miscommunication). That being said, the contextual evidence from our discussion IMO sufficiently proves the real intent here, coupled with the timing as mentioned. I also agree with the spirit-related arguments DW made later that I hadn't considered.

The internal (real) odds of the off-chain burn tax being implemented have, in fact, increased, not decreased (exchanges are far more likely to implement a 0.2% tax compared to a 1.2% tax). The only reason nubcake is seeking a refund early is because the external (perceived) odds (in his estimation) have changed given CZ's statement. This entire situation is an attempt to back out of a fair wager because he realizes his odds aren't as good as he initially thought, which is not at all a fair way to place the bet.

He himself knows this, as he referred to voiding the bet as "welching" four times. Money > morals, I suppose. I am not enjoying this but at least we're in good hands.