Hello nubcake_MeoW_ and FatManTerra,
I have made up my mind to invoke clause 3 and call this bet a draw. Based on Zazarb's decision and LoyceV's appreciated input I think this is the best course of action. Although I'm not convinced this is necessarily the correct course of action, I think it's best for all involved.
As I've said previously, I am not convinced that we've seen the last adjustment to the burn initiative, and there's still a chance for either party to win the bet. However, if the situation remains as it is until January 1st a draw is how I would see it. Since cause 3 did not indicate any timeline I have a bit of reservation about my decision, but I understand that there's little clarity, and it's does come down to subjectivity. At the start this looked like a friendly wager and both parties were optimistic. I will admit that the recent drama and conflict has played a part in my decision. The last thing I want is to be responsible for more conflict and drama. I do apologize to you, FatManTerra, I know this is not the decision you hoped for. I do implore both parties to accept this decision as it is.
nubcake_MeoW_ and FatManTerra, please send me an address here or via PM so I may build the multi-sig transaction. Thank you both.