I agree with the fact that we are probably not going to continue following the exponential trendline that Risto is using as a basis for his TA. The question is : how long will we have to remain under the trendline for the recognition that, although is was a good model for the first phase of bitcoin rise, it is not for the next phase that is starting.
Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ?
Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ?
The exponential trendline remains valid until Bitcoin has reached 50% of its eventual adoption. In my understanding, the eventual adoption is more than 2x current adoption (potential of 500x-5000x), and therefore the trendline is current for at least this year, and maybe up to 2015, 2016, 2017.
I have never even published the amazingness of the trendline in how it showed the buy point after the 2011 crash. SlipperySlope's model with price data only from the exchange period could not capture it. Then the similar buy signal came after 2013 and also is flashing now. If we go up without ever seeing 400, will you finally believe me?
For Bitcoin to act as a universal savings medium, it will have to replace many current paper instruments like government debt, whose market cap is in 10s of trillions. By simple math, one bitcoin will cost $1M+. If the offchain services make money supply effectively flexible, then there is a possibility that it will have the same value as gold (300,000/BTC). And of course it can fail, and have a value of a few 1,000s or 10,000s.
I might believe that we continue to follow the trend line for a while longer if there is a rally this year beyond 2-3000 USD, but even then, not for years. I have sufficient faith to be holding right now, so I do believe that the current price point is good. I actually increased my amount of bitcoins by 35% by buying last week around 435 USD.
I think bitcoin could hold on the exponential trend line for some 5 years if it was alone using its own technology. Since it is open-source and due to my concerns expressed in my previous post, I think a huge number of big, powerful entities will launch their own crypto and greatly spread and dilute the crypto market cap. I just don't see why bitcoin would be holding the vast majority of the crypto technology market cap going forward. I have not been explained with enough arguments why that would happen.