- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.322 log units. The trendline is at $966 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (of all of the time between the 4/2013 and 11/2013 peaks, only 2% (5 days) was spent this low)
How many days have we spent this low so far??
If we draw the line in -0.3 log units (which equals to being at <50% of the trendline price), last time we were this low 14 days.
This time we have spent this low 7 days.
In the late 2012 we were much lower though, so you always have to be prepared for all scenarios. For me, the scenarios that I prepare for are:
- 400 not breached, stabilization, and next bubble this summer
- going lower, damage of sentiment, and takes longer to get back to the uptrend
- Bitcoin is doomed.
It is just that the first is clearly the most probable imo, and the last is not very probable.
The trendline model tells when it is expensive and when it is cheap. It is too long-term model to forecast if Bitcoin is doomed. That is the reason you should only invest what you can lose, and invest that according to the trendline/SSS and never sell at a loss, rather lose it all if the Internet and crypto are destroyed. (Imagine how rich that guy would be who sold to me his bitcoins in 2011 to get the feeling.)