One can easily understand how the price gonna affect, if he knows the basic rule of supply and demand .
The Bitcoin market is more complex than other markets and it is smaller than other markets too. Therefore it is more vulnerable and sensitive to market manipulations. In reality, it is more easily affected by manipulations that reduce impact of supply and demand correlation.
It doesnt really matter if you are talking specifically about future trades or if people are holding their Bitcoins for long term. As there are fixed amount of Bitcoins out their to be bought, so if more people show interest to buy the coin, then definitely the price will rise and hence this affects the price. Similar things also happen while buying, selling or borrowing.
With Bitcoin, it is better to say about it in an aspect of investment rather than trading or speculation. Bitcoin market is too sensitive to news that are diversifying from exchanges (hacks, upgrades, policy changes), governmental policies and regulations to globally general economic issues.
Like the pandemic, we can not predict will it happen and when it will occur. We can not predict too far about future on Earth, everything from society, politics to global health issues.