Update:

Today is November 12th. 2022.

Yesterday, I bought some Bitcoins. I wanted to buy a few every single day for a week or so.
Today, I just went all in and converted 90% of my stable coins into Bitcoins.
The average price at which I bought all is around $16,810 per coin.


The reasons why I bought today are:

1. 1 year from previous ATH.
2. Bitcoin rainbow chart says firesale. The lines actually dipped out of the color band.
3. Crypto Fear and Greed Index:

Historical Values
----------------------------------
Now.            Extreme Fear. 22
Yesterday     Extreme Fear. 21
Last week     Fear.              40
Last month   Extreme Fear. 24

4. Bitcoin is already 76% down from the previous ATH.
5. Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure tracker indicates an extraordinary selling activity from miners. They are selling more than they have in almost 5 years!


Again. There is a catch. I did not buy actual bitcoin but wrapped bitcoin which carries quite a bit of risk. I will have to try and convert the wrapped BTC to BTC and then put it in cold storage. So, not completely out of the woods yet.

Next:

After 6 months i.e May 2023. BTC will likely 2.5x from the current price. i.e will hover around $37k. I am going to convert to stable coins and pull out of the market then.
3 months before the next halving i.e around Feb 2024. I will switch to Ethereum 100%. 3 months after halving I will convert 10% into the latest and greatest nascent cryptos with good hype/buzz.
Final exit is roughly on or before August 2025

this is roughly my plan.

The other simpler approach is to just keep everything in Bitcoin till 3 months before the halving date. Then convert 50% to Ethereum. Then after another few months invest 10% into new alts. Sell everything on August 2025.