I am quite new to the crypto, investing, economy and all that...so far really got interested in about a year ago. So far what I see is lots of lack of similarities in opinions of youtubers, blogers and mass media. Some sources are shouting like creasy that a great recession is coming and it will hurt everyone so bad like never did. More moderate youtubers are doing some analysis and basically what they saying is, well there could be recession, and that is ok, this is how you get markets cleaned up. And there is third part that says, no everything is ok... unemployment is high, GDP is rising so technically we are not in a recession.
So the question is, what is going on there, are we really heading to recession? (or this is how markets work, so that people always speculate? )
The average post-WWII recession lasts 17 months and involves a total GDP decline of about 4.8%. Given the factors driving the current economy, if America indeed slips into recession, its reasonable to suggest that it will last at least as long as the average suggests.
If America posts negative GDP growth in the current quarter, then technically, the economy will have entered recession in January 2022. The averages suggest recession would persist until the third quarter of 2023.
Still, the economy seems to be facing a number of economic headwinds, from inflation, supply chain issues and war, to an anti-business/anti-growth Federal government. No one has a crystal ball, but these could certainly trigger a more rapid and dramatic GDP decline or drag out the recovery over an above-average timeframe. Or both.