I was at the SM Lanang mall yesterday. Ate some overpriced, delicious burritos and soft tacos at Army Navy. Didn't think we had that kind of food here in Davao. Amazed me to see basically the quality of any modern city in the world imported into formerly third world Davao, Mindanao, Philippines, which didn't even have street lighting in 1994.

First time I had gone any where other than local el cheapo barbecue since I had returned from Hong Kong in January.

The point I want to make with these photos, is notice even the ladies have stopped wearing their shorts and blue jeans and are adopting expensive clothing. This is in a third world country!

The point I am making is that do the following photos agree with the reality of the following financial calculations?

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-22683
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/21/heres-why-the-philippines-economic-miracle-is-really-a-bubble-in-disguise

What you see below is central bank QE ZIRP carry trade, pumping massive amount of debt into the developing world. Philippines exports 1/6 of its population to work overseas, and probably at least 50% is manual labor (maids, drivers, cooks, etc) which will be laid off in a 50% technological and debt default unemployment scenario. You can see the official data that this primarily comes from United States, Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia in that order of significance.

So my point is that those who think the crisis can't possibly happen because look at how good our lives are now, are ignoring the effect that contagion can have.

The following is a temporary illusion. This will come back again in the future, but after 2016 the following is going to diminish for some years.




















$20 per head Vikings all you can eat luxury buffet: