In this case, predicting with various speculations and currently available data is still possible and not too early. As for their chances of being in first place, of course, their chances are still very large.
But on the other hand we also can't make this Manchester City won't catch up. Currently their points are only 5 points adrift, that means there are still many things that can happen especially between Arsenal and Manchester City they still haven't met even once this season.
Their matches have only been running for 14 weeks each and there are still 24 more weeks to wait after their international break which makes us still not completely sure about who will be the champion especially the points can still be followed.
You're right because Manchester City is not going to give up so easily. There are still games left and there will be lots of possibilities for that to happen. Indeed, this is a matter of full points but besides that, the mentality and condition of the players will determine the result. Manchester City with a long time lag will make them improve their performance after the world cup. The difference of 5 points is safe for now, but after the game reopens it is difficult to feel safe.