Well, I also think that Casimero could be the favorite, there are some boxing forums, under which I read them almost every day, and many Latinos obviously go to Casimero, Akaho is a boxer who can offer a very different style from that of Casimero, obviously what it could be that Casimero is very careful because I think that the one who has the most to lose here for anything is him, from Akaho, as he had said before, he felt very underestimated, because Casimero said that he wanted to after this fight, going for Inoue, practically what he did was say that he would win easily without effort, I think he got into a little trouble.
I agree with you that Casimero has the most to lose here but i also think that he can withstand this hurdle and ultimately win this fight.
I read an article where one of Philippine's boxing analyst said that this fight is a mismatch for Casimero and he said that Akaho's style is tailor-fit for Quadro Alas for the latter to look good in the ring.
Akaho's game plan would be to box and threw those jabs but i don't think that he can sustain that all night and keep Casimero at bay because Casimero is very good at cutting the distance and if he did close the gap, the fight will be over.
if Akaho will engage that much with Casimero he's risking his fate as like you mentioned Casimero is good in cutting the distance and also Casimero is good in engaging with a toe-to-toe confrontations, he love that engagement and he will try to dominate if by chance Akaho's punches is not that heavy to endure.
Casimero will keep that close fist fight and he will try to knock down Akaho. He will take that chance if Akaho will be careless in this fight, he will be forcing that KO outcome.