the thing about history is.. everyone can see it and react to it to "never happen again"
meaning if traders see a pattern that a high happens at a certain time.. eventually enough traders plan to hedge that by selling in that historic suggested time. which then ends up with the suggested time sees less highs that due to mass sells taking advantage of knowing the pattern.. thus breaking the pattern
a pattern is only a pattern until to many people use pattern recognition trade bots to trade against the pattern
You are forgetting the first step of this process where the increasing number of people believing in the pattern start buying bitcoin because they think price is going high and at the same time they are seeing the signs of it going up. Just like what happens every 4 years in the weeks leading to halving where a lot of people panic buy bitcoin!
i see your point. but rationally..
1. i dont buy on a known high.
2. sellers want to sell more on a high
3. ATH happen a year after a halving event
halving: 2012(ath 2013) halving: 2016(ath 2017) halving: 2020(ath 2021)