The change from bear to bull or vice versa market in general is defined by the last big news. We had multiple bad news related to various fraudulent companies in the last year. If the price starts to climb up, this won't mean a true bull market. It will be what is called a disbelief rally, ending usually below the last ATH (but not necessary). In order to reverse the trend for a true bull market, we need a lot of change in the public space. In the last cycle, there was euphoria about the institutional investors, Grayscale, Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, paypal, El Salvador, etc. Some of us even argued that this time will be different, and we will not see a bear market at all. I believed only 50% of that, so I cashed out a bit as a precaution. My experience shows that there always will come some FUD that would put an end to the bull market for awhile at least.

For the next bull market the average Joes must believe that this time will be different and no more surpises will happen. A new euphoria generated by series of big good news. And just when everybody expects the next ATH, some unexpected bad news would again stop the bull market and the new bear market will begin. This is how it works IMO. May be the exchanges will get safer, the fraudulent companies exposed, ETF approved, more countries accepting Bitcoin as a legal tender, Amazon accepting Bitcoin, and so on. I'm not 100% sure that this will happen before 2025, but let's hope for the best. The good thing is that this is inevitable, so let's use the time for DCA.