JJG would likely be scared as fuck, if such a situation were to happen - even though historically, we have had situations in which the BTC price dropped way below expectations due to some kinds of an aberrations and sometimes the aberrations will be contained on one or a few exchanges, and sometimes the aberration takes a bit longer to work itself out - and for sure those kinds of moments are scary because confidence is rattled. even when there seems to be no real explanation concerning why the price is dropping so much.. and maybe we find out the reason (if any?) at a later time.


There is some truth in what you are saying Philip - but there is also some problematic aspects to what you are saying.

First of all, a strict form of DCA would not concern itself very much with price - but just appreciate that in the long term the BTC price is going to be higher than it is today, whether buying at $17k-ish, buying at $30k-ish, buying at $69k-ish, buying at $8k or buying at some other amount.  One of the main things is trying to be ballpark-ishly correct in terms of direction over a longer period of time and there may well even be a decent amount of uncertainty in regards how much time might be spent DCA'ing.. whether it is a year or two or maybe 4-10 years or longer.. yet if the fundamental assessments regarding the underlying asset (BTC in this case) end up being correct, then there will be very strong likelihood that DCA'ing has paid off, and may well pay off better than any other strategies of buying the dip or lump sum buying or various other kinds of trading strategies.

You are still suggesting some kind of a hybrid model of DCA'ing that attempts to take advantage of buying the dip, too.. it's not really wrong.. but becomes somewhat problematic to be throwing in a lot BTC price prediction details, even though I cannot really disagree with the idea of BTC prices currently being low based on a variety of indicators.. .. I find most relevant the 200-week moving average, which is above $24k and then 100-week moving average, which is around $38k.


Even you likely realize that there is a lot more going on in BTC that goes beyond what the Fed is doing or might be doing.. but surely, you do like to hang on to some of these narrow and likely wrong theories that seems to attribute much more causal relation than actually exists.. and I am hesitating going into any further details at this point.....

Of course, there is some correctness to your assertion that we still have a lot of downwards BTC price pressures, so we likely cannot consider that the bottom is in until we are able to move up.. and maybe even get close to $20k.. and that still might not be enough... .. yet even with quite a few bearish signs and uncertainties, there are also ways in which some of the negative BTC price pressures can be spun in positive ways.. which likely still continues to scare the shit out of any bear that actually recognizes what is going on in regards to so many folks, in recent times, believing that they were holding BTC and realizing either that they did not really hold BTC - and even the vouchers to BTC that they had (or might still have) might not be resolved for many years, and it could end up being resolved in ways that either screw them out of their presumed BTC exposure or ends up paying them pennies on the dollar or maybe close to 50% if they were to happen to get lucky in terms of any later resolution that might play out in the coming years..

....and in the meantime, they have to decide if they are going to re-establish exposure to bitcoin.. and perhaps some of them may well have learned that they might need to figure out how to HOLD BTC in their own ways.. rather than relying on third parties, even though not everyone learned that lesson, either... and there are likely quite a few folks learning the wrong lessons, such as believing that they might need to hedge by buying IBonds or some other retarded resolution that may contribute to their NOT having sufficient or adequate exposure (or preparations) in case the BTC price ends up going up from here rather than the down or sideways that you may well be attributing more weight than deserved... so some of the folks who had been waiting for lower (or the same) BTC prices might end up with a surprise in the other direction.. and who can we blame for that lack of perspective.. except largely people have to take responsibilities for their preparations to make sure that they are not getting too much drawn into possible false narratives that contribute to their not adequately/sufficiently pee paring their lil selfies for UPpity.. (again)