Having a certain understanding of the possible near future is not possible. We could try as much as possible and that would be lovely but that doesn't mean that we will understand how it all works, it is not going to be that simple and it will be quite difficult to handle in the long run as well if you keep focusing on short term.

Sure go ahead and trade, and try to make profit, but that doesn't mean that it is certain, you can analyse it as much as you want and it could still shock you. This is why I love long term investment, I know it will be higher than the current price if we look at 5 10 years down the road, will it crash along the way? Of course it will, and I won't mind it.