What are the chances of generating a valid seed phrase (or 24 mnemonic words) from the BIP39 wordlist of 2048 words?
I know the last word is a checksum generated from the first 23 words, but there's got to some % chance you correctly guess a valid working seed phrase just from manually randomly picking out 24 words...
As I read the OP the question that popped up in my mind is: If I were to have my cold wallet stolen, or if I were to steal one, what is the possibility of selecting seed words at random and gaining access. I also presume that the seed is not global, but local to each wallet and to each account on the wallet. A search stated that there are 2048 seeds in the library.
I entered some numbers in an Excel work book for this. With a library of 2048 seeds, presuming repeats are not allowed, the probably of getting the first one right is 1/2048. For the second one, divide by 2047, then by 2046, etc. By the time we get to the
11th word: 1 out of 2.58789 * 10^^36
23rd word: 1 out of 1.27862* 10^^76
That is about the size of the private key.
I suspect that after some number of tries each cold wallet will do something like:
A) delete its private key(s). Not the best, but at least the thief is not rewarded.
B) each time a bad sequence is provided slow down the response. Start with, maybe 1 second of additional time, then double the time for each attempt. It could write the number of attempts into a storage location and reset it upon getting the correct seed.
When I did a seed check with my wallet, there are a few seconds delay before it was ready for the next word. That would introduce sufficient time to deter any thief.
Is this reasonable? Or do I have a flaw in my understanding?