I was lucky enough to be around Bitcoin mining when the rewards were sky-high and the competition wasn't as fierce. But as time has passed and the difficulty has skyrocketed. It's become almost impossible to turn a profit with mining. I still remember when I first got my S9 and it was bringing in a cool $25-$100 per day, but those days are long gone and the rewards just aren't what they used to be.

I've been thinking a lot about what will happen when the block reward subsidy drops below 2 BTC in a little over 5 years. According to the original white paper, the goal was for fees to eventually overtake the subsidy, but there was no specific timeline given. If the price of Bitcoin is high enough to make up for the lower subsidy with miner fees, it could cost an exorbitant amount to send Bitcoin. This could put pressure toward using centralized services like exchanges and WatchTowers on the Lightning Network for using Bitcoin. If the cost of sending Bitcoin remains low, mining will become more and more reliant on cheap electricity.

It's hard to predict exactly what will happen, but I'm curious to hear what others think. What do you think will happen when the block reward subsidy is 1.5625 BTC in a little over 5 years?