I agree with you, bitcoin price won't be able to hit $20k before the end of the year, but the prediction of a more active market in mid-2023 is pretty vague. According to my prediction, our economy will be much worse next year, although interest rates have fallen, the economy is just now starting to absorb interest rates. That means the economy will stagnate more next year, and the war looks more intense, most likely triggering a new energy crisis. 2023 will be more brutal so I don't expect much.
A good start to price recovery can be expected during 2023. But I agree $20K is unlikely to be hit for the rest of the year.
It is also unlikely that the economic problems that you are worried about in the next year will be completely correct even if the war and inflation are not resolved. I can expect better strength next year in bitcoin after this bloody 2022.
I expect a small bullrun in early 2023, that's maybe above $25K to $30k. But I don't know what the best scenario is about that other than knowing that more and more people are starting to become holders.