Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 22/12/2022, 00:59:24 UTC
⭐ Merited by shahzadafzal (1)
DCA is a lazy method.

From all prior halvings and ATH here is the Biodon's trading starategy:

1. ATH occurs at 1year-1.5 year after halving (in 2021 the double top was almost identical at ~1 year and 1.5 year).
2. Bitcoin bottom occur after at least 80% decline from the ATH (happened 3 times, with just a slight decrease in % each time: 94,87, 84% decline). Currently cycle low was at about 77.5%.

Therefore, a "simple" trading strategy: sell at around 1-1.5 years after the halving (when prior exponent would start stalling). How to choose 1 year vs 1.5 year: sell when 30 day increase is at or more than 100% and we are around 1 year or 1.5 year interval post halving, then either buy a bunch at -75% or split into thirds and buy 1/3 at -70%, 1/3 at -75%, 1/3 at -80%. If the third point would not happen-buy something nice instead, like a car, vacation or a house (depending on your cap gains from the top). Don't chase.