I feel that I am not really very much of a betting person either.. but members here make it so damned tempting when they are expressing pretty high level events with very high levels of certainty - so it may not even matter which direction in respect that they are making such strong proclamations - it becomes almost a bet that anyone could take - because the odds are against very strong proclamations coming true.

There are some fairly strong proclamations that are either far into the future or within a kind of framework in which it is a bit more difficult to take the other side of the bet.. so maybe the proclamation has to cross a certain threshold before I suggest a bet... and I have actually never had anyone take the other side of any suggested bet that I have made (which is usually in response to what another member states) - so maybe it is me?   

I do think it is a decently good exercise to see if we might be able to get members to stand behind their claims when they become so strong - and even feeling kind of outrageous.. which maybe in that sense getting into the details of structuring a bet is not easy, either. 

You might be familiar with some of my outrageous BTC price & timeline claims from my December 6, 2021 assignment off probabilities, and I even had something nearing a 0.5% chance that BTC prices could reach more than $1.5 million by mid-2023.. or something like that.. but no one was trying to bet me regarding those kinds of time and price framings... and I believe that you could fairly read my odds of 55% that the $69k top of November 9 was "not in".. and so I guess I was spewing out some kinds of specifics that were ultimately whimpy rather than strong, so no one really asserted that I was being outrageous, and I expected a wee bit more pushback that I did not get.. not that I can remember.