Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Betting strategy question
by
klidex
on 28/12/2022, 05:23:12 UTC

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC12) = +BTC1.21

I would definitely take that bet, and I doubt anyone with a bare minimum gambling knowledge wouldn't.
Regardiing the best size I would keep it the same size disregarding how much more I will be paid out, because It Is a single bet event.
All gambling fans will definitely accept all forms of betting even though they know that there is an 83% percentage of losing.
However, in fact all gambling bets do have a greater percentage of losing and only a small chance of winning, even if luck is on your side.
Even though a gambler has gambling knowledge, when they are playing or betting they experience a slight defeat, this knowledge is very rarely used. Because yes, there is only high emotion and greed, so it makes them forget and continue playing without thinking about defeat.