The 2022 was very rough for Bitcoin. Almost all institutional investors turned out to be ponzis. How and when the trust in Bitcoin offering institutions will be restored, I have no idea. I think the first few months of the next year will give us a hint what will happen in 2025. If the steady downward continues there are chances 2023 to ends up with lower prices than now. And this will cast a doubt whether the halving will lead to a new ATH. May be this will be the first time for this pattern to break?

Now, it is clear to everyone that the price is no longer a function of demand/supply only. There are quite a few big players manipulating the price. Some of them do it legally, others completely illegaly. For example, the fishy everyday liquidation of the longs in 2022 was due to the war between 3AC and Almeida. The worst part is that Almeida shorted thousands of paper Bitcoins. Hopefully, the foul players will be all out of the play and this will bring a healing to the market. Then we can hope for a new ATH in 2025 and possibly an exponential bull run with ATH's above 150K.

But I'm a bit sceptical about the exent of the next bull run. First of all, there is always our arch enemy China with their pannic ban announcements every time bitcoin is in the bull territory for more than a month. Their whole economy is a tower of cards and they are terrified of bitcoin like satan of Jesus. And whether we wish it or not, hundreds of millions chinese will find a way to purchase Bitcoins during the bull run and then dump it with a huge loss when each monday PBOC publishes a newsletter how it will ban bitcoins, vpn's and put in jail the users of vpn's. Second, Bitcoin is a threat to the world fiat empire and ther always be old corrupt clowns like Gensler, US and EU bakners etc. who seek a way to ban via POW enviroment arguments. ANd finally, there always be morons to trust other liars with their money, creating a cluster of ponzis which will collapse in the same way as FTX, Almeida, 3AC, terra, etc.

So, I expect the next bull run to start somewhere in 2025 with a possible delay to 2029 if there are other major issues. Then the bear market will come again, unless all the above scenarious change by then. I dream of a world with Bitcoin recognized as the only true money and becoming invincible to any FUD. Bitcoin survived all kind of trials and storms, and it will survive any other storm on the way. So, no need to worry about fiat savings and expenses. Just keep hodling+DCAing and all will be fine.