It's obvious. The bearish trend will continue. Within the next month, the price will fall below $16k and at no point this year will the price sustain 5 consecutive days above $17k.
I dont think its obvious. In fact, the 4-year cycle has bottomed by now in each of its previous cycles indicating that the bottom is in. There is also the fact that the FTX blowup exposed who had Bitcoin and who did not, leaving very little left that could cause a further drop from here. It seems obvious to me well see a build up in price leading into the halving event, with a potential drop for the mtgox coins to be distributed.