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Re: LoyceV's Avatar for Rent [first 🦊🦊🦊3 YEARS🦊🦊🦊 (197 weeks) rented out]
by
1miau
on 07/01/2023, 17:00:04 UTC
⭐ Merited by RickDeckard (1)
Thank you for running another contest like this one 1miau! Since I'm edible I'll just try my hand at guessing the block (I believe this is my first time doing so):
Code:
Bitcointalk Account: RickDeckard
Last Block of January 2023: 774501

My calculations took the following assumption:
...
Great and very detailed prediction, I've added it to my list.



Since time for participation is running out today, I'll also make my calculation:

Time left until January 31, 2023, 23.59h:
24 days
6 hours


On average, each day will be mined (1 Block per 10 minutes) 144 Blocks per day (6 Blocks per hour x 24 hours = 144 Blocks)

Calculation if we won't see any hashrate change:
(24 days * 144 Blocks per day) = 3.456 Blocks
+ (6 hours x 6 Blocks per hour) = 36 Blocks
= 3.492 Blocks until our given date

=>

3.492 + 770.843 (current Block) = 774.335


Now, we need to adjust our prediction due to difficulty changes.
Difficulty changes are made due to hashrate changes, which are following BTC price.
I'm expecting BTC to make a nice move towards 25k and more miners will join the network (hashrate increase) => more Blocks will be mined.
It's difficult to predict, how hashrate will be affected but I'm adding a total of 5% more Blocks to be mined.

3.492 * 1,05 = 3.666,6 Blocks

=>

3.666,6 + 770.843 (current Block) = 774.335

My prediction: 774.510

Code:
Bitcointalk Account: 1miau
Last Block of January 2023: 774.510