I think it's wrong to compare the old bear market history with the future bear market, things could play out differently, I was into crypto in 2019 and I am very sure that there was a bear market years back before 2017, in 2020 there was pandemic, no one saw that coming.
Past data from bitcoin's brief history is all we have to give us an idea of what the future will look like, and while I have repeatedly said that we should take such extrapolations and models with a grain of salt, at least we have something to go on.
What do you suggest we base probabilistic predictions on?