Those numbers are weird, but they also presume picking the bottom, which so far for this cycle, our bottom (of $15,479) was on November 20, 2022.. so a little bit more than a year after the November 8, 2021 top that is listed for this cycle.

Also bear markets are not really known to be over until there is a certain kind of comfort that the bottom is in..   Perhaps the 2015 bear market might have been either in late 2015 or I like to use the end of May 2016 as my confirmation that the 2015-whatever bear market was over.

For 2018, I like to use the April 1 to June 27, 2019 price run, so somewhere in around mid-May 2019, there was a certain level of confidence that they 2018 bear market was over.

For this one, at this point in time, we have little to no clue, beyond speculation.. .. we are still too close to the so far November 20, 2022 bottom....   I think that getting above the 200-week moving average (which is currently about $24,400) would be a good start - yet I am not even sure if we would have to get above the 200-week moving average in order to start to feel comfort that the bottom for this cycle might be in.. which is kind of weird, when you think about the matter... The 200-week moving average has tended to be the low for the BTC prices in the previous cycles, and this cycle it seems that the 200-week moving average is the price that we are wanting to get above in order to perhaps start to feel more comfortable about the bottom being in.


I agree that there is no real need to know all of the particulars of why you are investing into bitcoin, but you do have to have some level of confidence regarding the fundamentals of the thing that you are investing in (BTC in this case) to appreciate that in the longer term (at minimum the period of your investment) the odds are pretty decent that the price is going to go up.... and surely, there are no guarantees that the price will actually go up (BTC in this case), but the reason to invest into it should be that there is some kind of a belief or an assessment that foundationally (fundamentally) it is a good investment.


I agree with you here in regards towards that historically it seems that you had not really known what you were doing in regards to DCA - or at least you never did commit to it through and through because even if you had committed to DCA buying over the first 10 years of your bitcoin exposure of even $10 per week, then you would have likely accumulated more than 100 BTC (The DCA chart does not allow measuring more than 9 years at a time, but we can see that 9 years starting from January 2012 gets us 87 BTC, but then
we can also see that only investing for three years starting from January 2012 would have still gotten us close to 84 BTC), but it is more difficult to blame anyone for failure to hang onto all of their BTC.. .. so then maybe part of the question might have been how many BTC would have been reasonable to hang onto through all of that time in which it could have been pretty inexpensive to get 100s of BTC for perhaps less than a few thousand dollars of investment?

So DCA is one aspect in order to attempt to reach a decent accumulated amount of BTC, but then hanging onto the investment seems to be another important part of the whole thing, no?

In recent times, I had been considering my own BTC accumulation, and if I were to aggressively invest into BTC starting right now, employing similar tactics as I had employed starting in late 2013, the amount of BTC that I would be able to accumulate in the coming 2-3 years would likely be something in the territory of 5% to 10% the size of my current stash, at best. 

There may well be some ways that these days folks are able to be more aggressive in their BTC accumulation because perhaps there are more dollars in circulation, so wages are higher than they were 9 years ago, but still it is difficult to imagine even aggressive BTC accumulation adding up to the amounts of BTC that earlier BTC adopters would have been able to accumulate. 

So I am not even really disagreeing with anything that you are saying in terms of what seems to be a need for younger people (with at least a 4-10 year timeline) to get started soon and to be as aggressive as you can be, but I am not sure if I would be making the same recommendation for someone who is going on 66 years old.  It is more difficult to make that recommendation for someone who may well need to stay more liquid and may not really have a 4-10year or longer investment timeline.. and the question for me for someone with a shorter timeline would not necessarily be NOT to do it, but instead I would have some concern about level of aggressiveness for anyone who might not comfortably be able to say that they have a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline..

In other words, younger people are able to afford to be more aggressive than older people in their investment into BTC strategies - even though they still have to be careful NOT to be overly aggressive in terms of NOT being able to cover their expenses or otherwise putting themselves into some kind of a pickle because they had overly invested into BTC and not made sure that their various expenses were covered.


Fuck shitcoins.  DCA does not apply to shitcoins because you cannot have any reasonable and/or meaningful assessment that they have long term value.  The rug can be pulled on you at anytime in the various shitcoins.



Well, $10 per week for 4 years would have gotten you around 86 BTC. I imagine that could be described as "exceedingly rich," and of course, putting $100 per week would have gotten 10x that amount, so 870 BTC, and still abilities to sell along the way and still have a couple hundred BTC, which probably would have been a decent play if any normie might have realistically been able to accomplish something like that.


Hopefully not believing in me because ultimately each of us is responsible for our approach in terms of how to accumulate BTC, and has to establish some kind of a system that is within our level of comfort - even if we are able to get started right away, we should also be attempting to hone our BTC accumulation strategy in a way that we are comfortable with the level of our investment into BTC and also to be able to figure out our target BTC accumulation level, then to maintain our BTC accumulation level in a way that is profitable and tailored to ourselves and the various financial and psychological goals that we are striving to achieve.