Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 08/01/2023, 23:25:30 UTC
@jjg...I don't think your numbers rally prove anything as one could have gotten 200 BTC in 2015 (at $250) for $50K or 100btc for 25K instead of 20 for $5K as far as bulk purchase is concerned.
I still posit that earlier on, bulk btc purchase was better than DCA. Nobody stops you to do a small DCA later, sure.
What I am getting at is that, apart from bitcoin going to $5-10mil or more in the period that is longer than usual investor timeline, say 20 years, it is difficult to imagine that current small DCA of a thou or even 10 thou a year would result in a TRUE wealth in a foreseeable future.
I played with uphold DCA calculator that has limited capability: I inputted 12 mo DCA 8k/mo during 2015 (it cannot accept variable amounts per mo for a bulk purchase).
Total amount spent 96K, total number of bitcoins 351.
If you do the same one year DCA later, for example 2017, using the same money (8k/mo), you get just 45btc, which is about 8 times less.
In 2020-9 BTC.
In 2021, you would have gotten "just" 2 BTC (170 times less than in 2015).
2022-4 BTC (better than 2021, but still about 90 time "worse" than 2015).
So, if you combine just those three years (2020-2021), you would have spent 288K buying 15BTC (19.2K/btc)
I made an example in a way that it easier to see what would happen if you use 1/10 (about 800/mo or about 10K, year-more of a middle class investor realm of possibilities)

Conclusion: Bitcoin is just too big in market cap already...could do 10X, maybe even 30-50X (to be like gold).
Going forward, it is likely that you would get low single digits btc/year EVEN if investing at a rate that is beyond typical middle class possibilities (in my example).
Surely, Musk can always by a lot of btc.
In 10 years even 5-10 btc could be a fortune (if inflation cooperates), so members should play with numbers and see how they can get there depending on their current situation.
However, if bitcoin continues it's upward trajectory, buying "bulk" would always get you more btc than DCA, as shown in my examples above.