Picnic bear is well loved in these here parts, even though much wow practices of BIG block bullshit over the earlier years.. poor widdo picnic bear.... .. hopefully someone took a flippening over the picnic table in order to knock some senses into that cute (but annoying) lil bear fellow.   


Ok.  Fair enough.


I am not sure if it matters very much what you call it in terms of quibbling over the terms "savings" or "investing".. of course, bitcoin gets denigrated as being "gambling" too.. so sometimes the labels might end up going too far in terms of what points are trying to be made.

Maybe we need to clarify our hypothetical a bit?  I did allow Biodom to distract me a bit more than I would have wished when he not only reduced the amount of cashflow, but then he failed/refused to specify if there was a starting investment amount that should have also been included.

I am willing to go along with some of his changes, but at this point, our hypothetical seems to be working with an extra cashflow that can be used for investing that is $800 per month or $10k per year or $200 per week... of course $200 per week would end up being $10,400.. so the numbers could come out a wee bit different even in terms of how to frame (describe) cashflow.

Another thing that I had been trying to suggest is a starting point at the end of the 2013, which would have been starting to buy BTC at the top of that cycle which I was using December 1, 2013 as the start date.

So you are fucking around with the hypothetical if you are suggesting all of a sudden that $10k is available to invest right away when we might ONLY be able to start to calculate cash flow as $800 per month starting December 1, 2013.. sure maybe we can cheat and say that you already had the $800 that you had earned in November 2013 in order to start investing in bitcoin at $800 on December 1, 2013, but instead, some of you non-DCA folks want to suggest that you know that 2013 is the top, so therefore, you are going to wait with your $800 per month, and surely after 10 months you have $8k that you can invest and after 20 months you have $16k that you can invest. So how are you going to invest it?

Part of what I had been trying to suggest is that you are likely going to be able to afford to invest into bitcoin more aggressively if you DCA into it rather than the reservations that you might cause for yourself if you try to fuck around with timing... and I am not even suggesting all or nothing necessarily, but of course, each of us has other factors that we need to measure besides merely looking at cashflow... even though cashflow is a good starting point to try to ask what are you going to do and how are you supposedly going to be able to beat DCA in your strategies.. even if you try to suggest that DCA is more whimpy than your gambling techniques, when the facts likely are contrary to how you are framing the matter in terms of how aggressive DCA allows an investor to be relative to someone who is trying to be strategic about his/her BTC buys.  Yeah, I should not overly generalize, but I don't really feel that I need to comprise my viewpoint when i see quite a few examples of the strategizers fucking up and/or being way more whimpy than I have been able to be over my years of investing into BTC... but then they come in and say.. you should have done x, y or z.. you should have waited for the BTC price to fall, as if they know when the BTC price is going to fall, and part of the fact of the matter is that their bullshit waiting around has caused them to underinvest in bitcoin and get distracted into investing into other less performative nonsense.. and it does no even need to be shitcoins. Instead of investing in BTC, they are investing in various other assets like stocks and having an overly lean BTC allocation as compared with the DCAer.


I doubt that you are saying anything much different than my actual practice of dividing amounts available into three categories, which are lump sum, DCA and buying on dips... it is just a matter of apportioning those amounts in terms of other things going on in your investment portfolio and other investments that you might have.. which you are even conceding some portion of that still might involve some DCA.. but of course, if you hardly know anything about your asset, you still might not necessarily be able to determine how much of a bear market or bull market (or consolidation) period that you are in, so if you cannot figure it out then DCA may well allow for more aggressiveness without necessarily taking additional risks.


So then you still might be talking about DCA.. so maybe you have a cashflow of $10k per year that is coming in, but you never let your cash reserves to go above $5k... so in essence, you have a DCA that gets triggered every 6 months, if you have not already spent that money within the 6 months because you do not necessarily want your cash reserves to build up too much.  You might be framing (or phrasing) the matter differently, but it is not as different than what you are making it out to be.


It seems that you are wanting to impute way the fuck too much trading knowledge, financial management skills, and even asset awareness knowledge onto the vast majority of normies. 

The vast majority of normies are way better off starting out with DCA, and then learning as they go... and if they are able to improve on DCA, then that is great, but get the fuck started as soon as possible, and DCA allows normies to get the fuck started as soon as possible and to be way more aggressive with their investment approach than if they are waiting around trying to figure out whether we are in dip or a up or a sideways or whatever.. they are not going to know.. so just buy their $200 worth of BTC every week.. and forget about trying to figure it out.. and later if they are able to figure out more details and strategies then great, let them play around with their additional knowledge, but they may well want to keep their DCA going on, even if they might be supplementing their BTC accumulation strategies with some other approaches including lump sum investing and/or buying on dips.


I mentioned in another post of mine, that if I were a bitcoin newbie and I worked my ass off for the next 2-4 years to accumulate as much bitcoin as I reasonably would be able to, then I would likely ONLY be able to accumulate 5% to 10% of my current stash, and the upper end of that range is being quite generous.. probably closer to 5%.. so there is a lot of value that comes from the earlier the better, but a newbie to bitcoin cannot go back, and there is no real evidence that the investment thesis for bitcoin is substantially or materially weaker than it was in late 2013 when I first got started buying this crap.  Of course, I mean "crap" in a good way.