November 2018 to March 2019, bitcoin bottomed at 3200-4000.  I'm wondering if one or more large actors were front running the 85% retracement?  So we never hit 3000. 
Previously we had a flash crash that was the bottom (or really two flash crashes in Jan and August 2015).  That year we spent most of the time at $300 (ish), but flash crashed to $170 (depending on the exchange).

I'm wondering if we have spent enough time from Nov 2022 to Jan 2023 for this to be the "bottom" of the cycle?  It seems like it might not be enough time.  So this move from 16k to 21k might be fake breakout.

I think the US GDP growth for 2023 is likely to be near zero.   Will crypto prices front-run the recovery?  (Will stock prices front-run the recovery? - It might be the same question if they are strongly correlated).

If MtGox is a good precedent, the FTX bankruptcy (and others, like Celsius) can drag on for many years without overly adversely affecting price.