Not saying that it will not happen because it's definitely unlikely, but it's absolutely very possible. Take note that $10,000 is merely just approximately 55-60% down from here. If there's something I've learned about bitcoin after 7 years, it can definitely surprise people both in the upside and the downside.
That is true, the price if bitcoin can be very volatile, see when it was falling from $40000 to $17500 in few weeks ago, it takes only short time. But $15400 is a price that the bears will lose more because most people are not selling. Even if the price go below $20000 again, it is kit going to $10000 in my opinion.
Many (read almost everyone) said that bitcoin won't go below previous all time high just because it never done that before, and we can see how that prediction ended up. Many things can happen to drive the price below 10k, like for example Binance or Tether going down (and there is always a chance for that to happen) which would almost certainly drive the price below $10k, and probably even much lower than that.
Bitcoin decreased below halving price, if that is possible, its reducing adoption volatility is still there. In the first halving, the volatility from ATH to lowest price at that time was 100x, in the second halving it was 33x, I'm the third halving it was 6.4x, in the fourth having, it was 4.5. What I know is that the volatility is decreasing and that it is like bitcoin still mimics the last time which makes many speculation we make monthly to be almost accurate.