Since the draws are independent for mining each new block, the chances are constant as long as the hash rate is constant and no matter how many times you repeat the mining attempts.
Correct.
For me there is a huge mistake in the calculation of the winning chances
[...]
If the project of @Willi9974 is also based on the assumption that we increase the chances by mining for longer periods of time, then a lot of people might be loosing their money.
You seem to have something mixed up. Willi9974 meant the following: if you would for example mine with an existing total amount "x" with 25 PH/s hashrate for 6h duration, then the chances of a block hit are exactly the same as if you would mine with the same amount "x" with 50 PH/s for 3h duration, which with 5 PH/s hashrate for 30h duration. And this is a correct statement.
Solo mining as it is done here and also by Willi9984 is clear to everyone and should be considered gambling. You should only bet as much as you are willing to lose.
The values are derived from
solochance.com. For further questions about the calculation and the background, you are welcome to
contact the developer in this thread.
Sorry, I insist because people might be fooled (and loose money) by the chances of mining a block that were announced.
You say that I'm correct about the Gambler's Fallacy but you are still talking about time. Hashrate and only hashrate matters for the probability of mining a block.
[chance with 50 PH/s for 3h]
> [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h]
> [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h] that is simply because you can remove "for xh".
The post should be edited to :
Chances to mine a block are :
at 1 PH/s --> 1 in 267.342 per block
at 2.5 PH/s --> 1 in 106,937 per block
at 5 PH/s --> 1 in 53,468 per block
at 10 PH/s --> 1 in 26,734 per block
at 25 PH/s --> 1 in 10,694 per block
at 50 PH/s --> 1 in 5,347 per block
The calculation in "solochance.com" is also wrong. I don't know if it's intentionally to just encourage people to use a solo-mining service.