Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing
ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.
if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.
When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.
If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.
either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.
It seems like you are new here. DOWNOnly analysis or UPOnly is generally unwelcome, because it's simply not how Bitcoin works.
Let's say it breaks up and outwards of the bull
trap flag, what exactly is the target to short then? +10% from previous minor consolidation as would be the conservative target? +20% from the start of the parabolic move if we consider this as the flag poll? or simply shorting new highs randomly because price will eventually correct and therefore decline, despite quite likely ending up considerable underwater in the meantime? The latter would mean you'd need a stop loss of 20% would sounds quite rich, unless you are targeting a 80% drop that is. The other options means getting stopped out / liquidated is very likely.
The point is this short-term bull flag
could take prices to $23K or even $25K, even if I personally find it unlikely in the immediate term. The RSI would probably be the most overbought in history, or at least the highest level in over a decade, but this also remains totally possible given how oversold prices got in recent months (particularly last summer). I saw a recent poll from CoinTelegraph that showed 60% of participants are bearish at this price, only 40% are bullish. So if you think most are long right now then you're way off the mark, as well as the idea that there are more longs than shorts still in the market right now.
IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.
While I agree are that a lot of the rise was a short squeeze, this doesn't immediately mean it's a good time to open a short (even if it usually is). You only need to take one look at what happened in April 2019 as the conditions are very similar. The Daily RSI reached around 90 after a short squeeze to $5K. They what happened? Price consolidated for around 3 weeks, slightly upwards, until another short squeeze occured.
The fact that price hasn't immediately pulled back from the upside around $21K two days ago, and instead consolidated sideways, should really be ringing alarm bells for you that downside right now isn't inevitable what so ever. You do as you please, as you need, etc, but I'm just warning you why experienced traders (neither permabulls nor permabears) are currently engaging in the "wait and see" approach.
thanks this was helpful. but I personally will continuing to sell into this rally. I really don't think we will see a repeat of April 2019, the capitulation this time didn't push price That far under fair value. and for the record, i'm not shorting, just spot trading, so i cannot be liquidated.