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Something like this is so rare these days, right? With around 5.5k tickets I was hoping to win something in the LOTTERY ROUND 398, but no, I was unlucky yet again
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Yup, hitting 5k doesn't happen very often, I've never made it yet, got quite a few of 500 wins though.
Your expectations were set pretty high, with 5k tickets you only had like ~0.025% chance of winning any prize (if my quick calculation is correct).
Your calculations are correct in a sense that I had very small chance to win, and it's no wonder that I didn't end up in the top 10. What amazes me about this freebitco.in lottery is that taking the 10th place doesn't give you that much money, it was only 0.00027042 BTC in the latest round, but all of us want so badly to be there. It is no longer about money, we just want to be there at least once.