"Is the bear market over? Hard to say, but a lot of the bad news was priced in. With a maximum drawdown of -28%, SPX discounted 85% of a typical 33% market decline and 78% of a recession bear market. I still like the 1946 counterpart-"
If you look at history to predict the present and the future, it can be said that it is too early to say that bear season is over. We've only been in bear season for a year, which means if history repeats itself, we have over 2 years left for bear season to end. Plus with the current economic crisis, if history doesn't repeat itself, bear season won't end either, and as information released by the Fed yesterday, they will continue to raise interest rates in 2023 until inflation returns to normal (<2%). This means we will have a more intense 2023 than now, brace yourself for bigger storms instead of expecting a bull season.
You raise an interesting point. It is true that past market cycles can provide insight into what we can expect in the future, but it's important to remember that every market cycle is unique and can be influenced by many recent things. Every period should be commentated by its own time and conditions. I wanna be optimistic about the market at the moment, even the biggest storms have their own advantage as long as you took your position
