Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?
by
Smack That Ace
on 23/01/2023, 07:57:20 UTC
The war unleashed by the Kremlin against Ukraine has led to the fact that Russia has lost the levers of influence on the world economy, expressed primarily in its energy power. In particular, Europe was able to find new gas suppliers, while the Russian Federation itself fails to find new and commensurate markets. And the introduction of a price cap on Russian oil has led to the fact that the market began to focus on buyers, not sellers. In this connection, the oil influence of the Russian Federation also decreased. This is stated in the material of Yale scientists for Foreign Policy. It is noted: thus, it has already turned out that the world economy no longer needs Russia.

“Putin’s leverage on natural gas no longer exists because the world – and most importantly, Europe – no longer needs Russian gas. ... Putin no longer profits from gas sales, since his previous supplies were 150 billion cubic meters of gas by pipeline to Europe have been replaced by a measly 16 billion cubic meters to China and pocket money from global LNG sales barely enough to cover costs. Putin has no markets to replace anything close to a shortage,” the authors explain material.

At the same time, Putin's oil leverage is also losing power. To which he himself made considerable efforts. Gone are the days of fear that Putin will take Russian oil off the market, causing prices to skyrocket. After all, after the Russian president announced a ban on the supply of the resource to countries that joined the restriction of oil prices in the Russian Federation, "oil prices actually fell."
The situation is very interesting, and in any case it is not in favor of Russia. Putin wanted to recreate a powerful empire, but military aggression, threats and blackmail of the world community led to the fact that he is rapidly destroying his country economically.

I would love to know who the new gas supplies to Europe are. I still haven't seen such news, maybe I missed it? As far as I know, Germany is building 4 more LNG import ports and will come into operation to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas. Besides, EU countries will reopen nuclear power plants. While Russia and China are building the gas pipelines will soon be operational, the Asian market will be the new market that Russia targets.
Falling oil prices will affect the entire OPEC+ bloc, not just Russia, so it is too early to say that it is having a negative impact on Russia. Let's wait and see the next move of OPEC+.