Oh gawd... 


I don't really mind the idea that you are making some short-term measures, but the real measures with long term investing, DCA and other ways of accumulating that might fall into buying on dips and lump sum investments tend to be better measured 4-10 years or longer in advance.  Of course, in bitcoin historically, we have had a lot of fairly regular great bouts of volatility, so there will be periods of time in which a lot of profits can be measured in a short period of time.. but still even if someone might find a lot of profits, even in a one 4-year cycle period, the real compounding seems to take place over a couple of cycles or perhaps more, even though of course there are no real guarantees that UPpity will continue.. 


Of course, part of the difference with you is that you had said that you sold a decent amount of BTC at around $20k.. so I wonder if you even got back all that you sold at around the $20k?  That's one of the risks of selling on the way down rather than on the way up... so usually if you sell on the way up, then you can pretty much structure that you don't lose either way.. so long as the BTC price continues to go up in the long term and you are mostly in profits and you are largely accumulating BTC... but if you are short-term measuring in fiat or even switching your ways of measuring, then you may well ONLY be telling one side of the story.

Another thing is that anyone who started DCA'ing in the past 2-3 years may well still be a decent amount underwater currently.. depending on how they did it in terms of how much front loading that they might have done, whether they employed leverage and/or if they have had a sufficient amount of cashflow and/or dry powder to keep buying when the BTC prices were down (such as below $20k), and we cannot even presume that the $15,479 bottom from November 20 is the lowest that we are going to get for this cycle.

For sure, I would like the BTC price to get back above the 200-week moving average.. which had historically tended to be a floor/bottom price point for BTC (and is currently at about $24,685).. and then I am not sure if I am going to get a lot of confidence that the bottom is in until staying above the 200-week moving average for a significant period of time, and perhaps even getting somewhere close to the 100-week moving average (which is currently at about $37,321).. .. and of course, our ongoing historical low BTC prices and the possibilities that we might have a decent amount of more down (which also is far from guaranteed because we could just go up from here for a bit more, too).. still seems to justify ongoing buying such as DCA for anyone who has not sufficiently and adequately established their BTC stake, which is what?  somewhere between 1% and 25% for normies just getting in (or between 1% and 25% would apply for newbie institutions and newbie governments, too)... if you are just getting into BTC you have to start somewhere  and figure out your level of aggressiveness in terms of what your BTC accumulation levels might be.. how aggressive? and what might be a reasonable/prudent allocation?  Those details can be studied as doing initial reasonable levels of DCA at these prices.. and perhaps a bit of front loading, too?  Don't come crying to me if you lose money?