Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: My greatest fear about Bitcoin Halving.
by
serjent05
on 03/02/2023, 15:17:50 UTC
Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.
  Forecasting Bitcoin on a bull in 2024 cannot be determined or predict by any one that why it is advisable to also study the market structure when it make a move to demilish u sell ur coins.

Bitcoin will be in a  bull run in 2024 prior to Bitcoin halving and peaking in 2025, the history of the Bitcoin cycle is one of the references that it is possible to happen.  It does not only happen once but twice - thrice already.

I agree that no one can precisely predict the future but we can always speculate, something like an intelligent guess with some proof of historical references of Bitcoin four year cycle.

Miners are the ones who are most effected by the halving. I am not saying that they manipulate the price, but I will say that it is "oddly coincidental" that around each halving the price tends to rally. Usually after the halving, as the market expects prices to go up at the moment it happens (the market tends to do the opposite of what people expect). The fact is, if prices don't go up, eventually miner revenue/profit goes down significantly and operations start to become less viable to run. If there is a cheaper energy source that manages to power their operations at a much cheaper price, maybe the price won't tend to rally as the cheaper energy source will make up for the change in revenue. I doubt this though. I believe that the halving is one of the economic encodings in securing bitcoin's market value in the long term.

It is a domino effect.  First, the miner will be affected because of the reduced block reward but later on miners adjust their prices affecting the market.  At the end even the retailer and buyers are affected by this Bitcoin halving