Reasonable reasoning, but for some reason bookmakers see the upcoming confrontation very simple:
UEFA Europa League 2022/23 - FC Barcelona reach Round of 16?
Yes - 1.60
No - 2.20
To be honest, I don't understand how, in the face of so many uncertainties (including the motivation of teams to spend energy on this tournament), one of the teams can be given such a preference. In my opinion, this is too unbalanced odds and means an easy bet on United.
It is only a matter of percentages in the bookmaker's analysis and may also have a compelling reason based on some endorsements. But as I said before, Manchester United are showing more and more quality at the moment and they are also getting solid, there are several reasons that make me think Manchester United can draw in the match which will take place at the Camp Nou. Manchester United's playing style also has similarities with Barcelona, because at this time they also use a short ball game with one or two touches.
Another advantage of Erik Ten Hak is being able to combine speed techniques and Marcus Rasford has proven to be a very dangerous player in front of goal at the moment, these two patterns can hinder Barcelona's full possession of the ball, so that speed can be used to carry out quick counterattacks. Of course not all matches will be the same and I think Erik Ten Hak has found a strategy against Barcelona.
Yes, I forgot to mention this part of the upcoming games. I don't like Ten Hag, but compared to Xavi, he is a real specialist and we can assume that he should win his part of the confrontation at the coaching level for a clear advantage.
This is another argument in favor of United, and the more absurd the forecasts of bookmakers now look (however, bookmakers are also not omnipotent and must take into account the opinion of the crowd and cash flows - and fact is that the Barcelona brand is now stronger than the United brand).