The majority of us are expecting or at least hoping for a new bull run somewhere after the upcoming halving because there seems to be some correlation between the two. However, what if the economy is in a worse condition than it currently is? We certainly can't expect much growth currently since the market has been going downhill for the past few years, but what if the condition is worse in the near future? Could Bitcoin still thrive?
The OP is also claiming that there's still a possibility of the market crashing again, but in my opinion, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $20,000 again.
We cannot say with certainty what will happen to the world economy in 2024 and 2025, but if there is no really big disruption (globally), according to today's indicators, it is predicted that a slightly less turbulent period will follow. Therefore, regardless of everything, halving can still play a significant role in starting a new bull run, although we cannot be sure that everything will play out according to the already seen scenario.
In other words, it is logical that we believe that a better period is coming, but on the other hand, it would be completely unreasonable to blindly believe that the price of BTC will explode just because it has always been like that after the halving.