Golden cross finally.

Yesterday the 50SMA crossed the 200SMA for the first time since September 2021. This could be the beginning of a bull run. By the way it's legit to assume that markets will be, at least at the beginning, cautious, since, as Edwardard recalled, a death cross on the weekly frame is also coming, for the first time of the history of Bitcoin.
We don't know which of the two events will impose itself on the other, they might even cancel each other out in a crab action.

Macro is not exactly by the side of bulls, with interest rates that, even with a slower ratio, keep raising and a strong American job market (something very positive in the overall, obviously), that will allow FED to adopt strict policies for a longer period of time.
Forecasts on inflation are good by the way, with milder prospects of a recession. Even if there won't be a QE comeback, economic stability, decreasing inflation and, sooner or later, decreasing interest rates could favor risk-on investments in the mid-long term.

I think the moment that will determine whether or not we are on a bull run will be the FED pivot, wich is something that will inevitably happen no later than Q3 2024.

That said we need to observe the outcomes of the upcoming death cross. In order to avoid it there should be a sudden, great pump capable of inverting the trend.

Basing on the behaviour of the price during the last golden cross, what could happen is a retracement to 19/20k that could last for the remaining days of February, until the beginning of a steady up action by the fall of february/beginning of March, leading to the conversion of the various resistance levels to support levels, pointing to the last ATH.

Another scenario is the comeback to pre-FTX crisis levels for an indefinite period of time (until macro gets better).

Last, markets could just ignore the signals of one of the two crosses, leading both to a new low (as bears predict) or directly to a new important pump from this week.