I agree on most of what you wrote. There are always risks. Sure it dropped when APT dropped but I think the real growth does not depend so much on the $/APT,
it is more about how fast Aptos will roll out the next updates (big TPS increase) and how many quality projects will emerge
that run an IDO on the platform. The real buy pressure will kick in when the usecase becomes relevant (staking ALT to gain allocation), and so far most of the new Aptos ecosystem projects are at an early stage in their development.
Devs stated that the goal is to be more than a Launchpad and they want to add other usecases, I expect it to have a bright future. If you compare
it to other Aptos projects so much more has been achieved in such a short time + the 20% APY staking is a very nice feature no matter if the Bullrun starts sooner or later.