I think we are not consistent enough and Bayern can afford losing players and replace them with not much of a down grade.
Bayern have enough good finance to replace their star players with others at similar quality. However it is applied for summer transfer when Bayern will have a few months to find players, send offers to club partners and finalize deals as well as have enough training time for new players.
In winter transfer, chance to find good replacements on the market is small and chance to see those new players play well is smaller.
If I am to make a prediction today I think Bayern wins the league but Dortmund come 2nd with Union coming 3rd. I think we have the strengths and experience that Union does not and we will catch up and over take them. I expect Bayern to win the league by 6-9 points because they just have so many replacements for their 1st team that they are prepared if they have any major injures and Dortmund or Union are not.
I agree with you that Bayern will win the league but I am not sure about Dortmund for the second position. I think Dortmund have more experience than other clubs but the departure of Haaland impacted them a lot especially their attacking power. In recent seasons, more competitors are rising to challenge Dortmund and Bayern, Union Berlin, Leipzig, Freiburg will not let Dortmund easily to claim the runner-up position.