I wonder what the chances of Bitcoin falling to 23K again are

In the ballpark of 100%, since we are already there.
my 20% number over the next 20 years brings us to 640k
in the year 2043.
20% is not crazy high pie in the sky number.
lets check 30%
Brings us to 230k by 2033
and 3.167 million in 2043
my guess is the range is 20% to 30%
My point is if you prep for that range you can do some planning for that range.
Part of the problem seems to be that you are describing some kind of a stable price, and we know that bitcoin does not work like that... and maybe it "feels" better if you were talking about bottoms, but just describing it as if it were some kind of a reasonable expectation makes you seem a wee bit "anti-bitcoin".... even if that doesn't really seem to be your intention.
BTCitcoin is up nearly 50% in 2023
Ooooh thx, didn't noticed such thing
but it is down now. 25.2k to 23.5k

Noise, no?