Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
philipma1957
on 18/02/2023, 16:13:22 UTC
@jjg..."Therefore, you have not addressed the issue.  $100 per week budget starting from January 2014.  When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts?  What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014? "

Of course, if you are starting from essentially zero, then you invest the part of the cashflow.
However I was mostly talking about a hypothetical person who already have some capital and is willing to spend at least a significant portion of it.
In the latter case, as @bitebis had posted, LS always beats DCA, no ifs and buts.

Therefore, for those who have nothing, a way of doing it would be to raise a chunk of money first (however, it had better be done maybe 3-6 mo ago), then invest that in one go ( onr 1/3 per mo) and THEN DCA.
However, that's just me and my approach.
Anything is better than staying at zero, you got that part right.

IMHO, however, people would tend to favor bitcoin when investing a "chunk" while the same people may waste money on itty-bitty "long shots" instead if investing in small increments (similar to lottery tickets).
One reason is purely psychological because you only get 0.004 btc for $100 while they consider getting 7 mil of some dog-related s-coin as "it's more units, man", which is completely erroneous, of course.
I would never do it, but people do it left and right.
Spending 5-25K at once (LS) gives you a more "tangible" amount of bitcoin and removes the distraction of the low value s-coins.
Sure, there could be a gambler who spends $5-25K on a s-coin, but I assume that those are a very small minority.

Someone I know, LS (100k+) in October 2021 - $62K.... lots of "ifs" and "buts" here!

Besides why are we ignoring the elephant in the room (or maybe it has been mentioned, but i am too tired to find it)...

Saylor/MicroStrategy, we would all agree he had LS into bitcoin right? $4,027,052,651 between 11th August 2020 and 27th December 2022 for a final total of 132,500BTC

If he had Weekly DCA, 125Weeks @ $32,216,421.21/Week would have yielded, 153,738BTC

Again, lots of "ifs" and "buts" here!

EDIT: other DCA calculators are showing 186,451BTC.

With all due respect, you are just engaging in anecdote comparisons.
Look at the graphs and read the text in the original post here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg61777181#msg61777181

Your friend and Michael Saylor are just current exceptions (small % of all scenarios).
However, when btc trades at 250K, your friend would be sitting pretty vs small DCAers in between.
Same for M. Saylor, however, it is a special case since he went overboard (with loans) close to the top.
IF he only made that initial purchase at 17K, he would be in-the-money already.

Why not settle for once and for all.

DCA  started 2009 to 2016 most dca buys started any of these times loses to buy and hold started these times

DCA started 2017 to 2023 most dca buy started during these times wins to buy and hold started these times.


buy and hold 2009 to 2016

buy and hold 2017 to 2023.

reverse is true for bud and hold.


yeah if you purchase don the covid flash crash at 3900 and held to now it is better than dca from that day.


What is happening is BTC is more valuable and thus DCA is more likely to win over buy and hold.


I am lazy but if you check every data point in the time frame above I am 99% sure buy and hold was better in early times

and DCA is better in later times.

and we are in later times.


which is why I do more DCA and hold  than buy and hold.