That's actually a decently good clip... in which it is being pointed out that some of the status quo rich are pretty dumb when it comes to bitcoin.. even though people like to look up to the status quo rich as if they were experts because they are rich.. but what else is new?
We have all kinds of misinformation out there, including some smart people who seem to know a lot of things, but then they keep talking about crypto whatever the fuck that is? So some of the pundits might get everything right, but then some of those who are criticizing the status quo rich still fail to correct the record sufficiently enough to use the word bitcoin rather than allowing the word crypto to be used in an unchecked / unclarified kind of way, too... although the word bitcoin was still used in that little 20 second clip.
This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign. The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%
You are still a bit bearish (maybe shell shocked), and nothing wrong with that.. .there is some good in having conservative scenarios and being pleasantly surprised if the upside ends up playing out, and of course, I personally do not play my finances and/or my psychology in such a way that I need to get high returns in order to feel financially and psychologically comfortable in regards to where BTC prices ended up going (as compared with where they were anticipated to go).
The study is flawed because it equates prices before mass adoption and after. Unless you have a way of predicting early unicorn investments, only the time scale from 2018 onwards should be considered, as the market cap shows this is when the mass adoption of Bitcoin really began. The prices were at 8-10k.
I have some difficulties in trying to figure out "when to start" bitcoin price dynamics too. I tend to default to something like 2012 or 2013, but still there are problems with those starting dates too, but at least bitcoin had established somewhat of a price on a variety of exchanges by that time versus some of the very difficult times of trying to get BTC in 2010 and 2011 and who the fuck even knew about bitcoin in 2010 and 2011 besides Jimbo.. hahahahaha
So it seems that in these relatively early days of bitcoin there are always going to be ways to attempt to frame the matter in such a way that it just seems unrealistic to be comparing current possibilities to earlier possibilities, but that seems to both be part of the nature of ongoing s-curve exponential adoption and the seemingly way that the BTC price plays out.. so some of the financial tools have become more sophisticated too, but it is likely in future cycles that we are going to have bigger institutions and more governments getting involved in actual bitcoin investing even more overtly than they might be doing now.. even though it seems that institutional getting involved in bitcoin is still likely pretty low, even if they are doing it covertly and even if they are fucking around with paper bitcoin and various financial instruments that ended up fucking some of them in recent times.
I still think that it is fair to go back to 2012/2013 as a starting point, even though it is true that we get more involvement and more sophisticated financial instruments, but a lot of the craziness likely gets sorted out in the wash. .and some of the same patterns from as early as 2012/2013 are likely to continue to exist and persist, even though the players are BIGGER now... and there have been changes in BTC too.. .. but in the end, there is a lack of evidence to really argue that now is different and that we need to start from a more mature market (such as 2018) because no one knew what bitcoin was prior to that. blah blah blah.. and I am just not convinced.. even though I don't really mind cutting out 2010 and 2011 - even though bitcoin started to have a price in mid-2010-ish..