I really don't believe that Germany has what it takes to win the UEFA Euro 2024 title. It can happen because surprises are always a part of every competition like this. But there are a lot of better teams that will compete. Teams like Spain, Portugal, France... They all seem much better than Germany at this time.
After the previous World Cup, everyone thought that France would be at least among the winners of the next Euro, but in the end they lost right away in the 1/8 finals. Such short tournaments are always random, but the fact is that we are now in an era of French dominance and they will be the biggest favorites to win the European Championship.
Let's say they are random to a certain degree. The last big surprise where it was really random was when Greece won the Euro in 2004. Other than that it is mostly the favorites who win it, but saying that one team is going to win it for sure is not possible. That is where it becomes random. Just as the Euro 2020 you mentioned when France was 3:1 ahead of Switzerland until the 81st minute, nobody in his right mind thought that 50 minutes later after a penalty shootout Switzerland would be in the 1/4 finals. But that is why we all love the sport and especially games where different nations play against each other. By now there are almost no easy games anymore. I remember that even Iceland was hard to beat and they have 375k inhabitants. At the Euro 2016, guess what happened. They were one goal down against England in the 1/8 final and turned it around in regular time, but then lost against France in the 1/4 final.