Yeh for clarity I was a lot more bearish once Bitcoin broken below $18K to $15.5K, after initially thinking the bottom was likely in with initial capitulation to $17.5K, as well as had little to no conviction that price would hold $15.5K, as instead thought $12K or $14K was looking more likely. Took me a couple of months to be convinced that it was possible after enough consolidation, then was bullish again with the break above around $19K. I'm never been one for being accurate on bear market bottoms to be honest, as all the technicals are always screaming bearish, I'm better on trend changes as the technicals are a lot more obvious. The irony being that during those 200-ish days a DCA average would have been around $19.5K, whereas $20K dip buying and $19K break-out got me the same price, with less effort, while being completely wrong.

Anyway, my theories or where price could next, whether back down to $20K or upto $30K shouldn't really be considered limitations just my perceived likelihoods. For sure we could double bottom at $15K (especially since we've seen a local double top), or otherwise continue onto $30K. It's purely my belief in the likelihoods/probabilities or these scenarios, which I find relatively low right now.  Probably the key point here is that I'm able to change my perception on bullish/bearish based on price change/action, unlike many others who are fixated on only one reality or the other, unable to change opinion etc.