I don't think that failing to qualify for the last World Cup says anything about their chances for the upcoming Uefa Euro 2024. There are a couple of examples where one tournament was a disaster even during the qualification and then the tournament afterwards the team performed very well. I would have to look it up but I remember that those situations have happened before.
The Nations League is a bad predictor for the future performance. The Nations League is often used to test players, usually nobody takes it as serious as the World Cup and the Euro and I agree with that. The Nations League is often boring to watch.
I agree when you look at the whole competition called the Nations league. But this is final four and I'm sure that each of the four teams would love to bring home the gold medal. I know that for Modrić it will probably be the last tournament in the national team and I'm sure that he would like nothing more than bring home a gold medal.
As for Italy, yeah... Other teams also had disastrous results in the Euro competition and then played brilliantly at the World Cup. I'm just saying that Italy is not my favorite team to win the UEFA Euro 2024.