I agree with this, history need not repeat itself but a priori we can assume that halving the reward for mining a block is most likely to have a positive effect on the price due to supply and demand.

It is worth remembering that the bull market has tended to occur about a year after halving, not immediately after. That would be more than two years from today. By then central bank policy may have taken a different direction or the war in Ukraine may be over. Depending on these or other events, there will also be a greater or lesser effect on the price, but in general a reduction in supply increases the price as long as demand remains constant (or even increases), and the demand side I am sure will at least hold up.