OK.. for the first time I can agree with all of your points. The last point is quite important. Even if Russian uses tactical nukes, it will not result in Russia winning the war. Ukraine has more than one million soldiers in active duty right now and they are well distributed across the 1,300 km long frontline. Using one or two tactical weapons to destroy concentrations of Ukrainian troops will not have an impact of the Ukrainian Armed forces to continue fighting. So in the end, for Russia it will cause more harm compared to good since their remaining allies will desert them.
There is a surprise visit of President Biden to Ukarine 3 days back just to show solidarity. US president visiting Kyiv is an indication that it's a safe city. While Chinese foreign minister is meeting Russian president in Moscow. When two big powers are standing opposite to each other, there is a rare chance of cease fire. One year of conflict is about to complete and still we have no clue when this will end.
US is accelerating the war and China is also trying to gain benefit because they want to get oil and gas from Russia. Putin meets china top diplomat in Moscow
US warn china may supply weapon
Russia may not need military support as much as it needs economic support to face Western sanctions. It is not easy for Russia to stop energy supplies to Europe without having friends to support it. These friends are mainly China and India. Of course, these friends buy Russian gas for less than half of its price, thus boosting their energy reserves. China is benefiting from this war without being a party to the military confrontation, whether through participation or supply. Russia could not have withstood this war (against America and its allies on Ukrainian soil) without China's support.
I wont say anything special about India, except for the facts of strong friendship with Russia:
using Russia's deplorable situation, India decided to take advantage of this and collect the last "skins" from the fake Colossus

at the same time, they unilaterally terminated all contracts for both joint development and the purchase of Russian "unparalleled" primitive and backward iron

But China is more pragmatic. He also uses Russia "up and down" for his own benefit, and also forces Russia to sell gas and oil 2 times lower than the market. But
China needs Russia precisely in an extremely weakened, but "alive" state.
This is true, if we take into account the economic aspects, then China is completely benefiting from the Ukrainian war, despite the stagnation in which the global economy has entered since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. But this may not be accurate, as we took into account that China needs a strong ally in the face of the threat of military confrontation with the West. We have seen how the United States rushed to fabricate crises in Taiwan with the aim of disrupting it from providing support to Russia.
It can be said that Russia would not stand in its war without supporting China, and China will not be able to withstand (militarily or in proxy wars) without a strong Russia ally.