I am not sure what you mean.

Are you saying that $21,600 is likely a decent bottom, but you are not exactly sure about the odds?

How could anyone (who has been studying the space) say anything else?  I know that there are guys with decent confidence that the bottom is not yet in.. so far $15,479 .. but gosh, I have hardly any clear vision regarding how, on a personal level, I am supposed to assign the odds.   I do agree that it is too early to proclaim that we are "out of the bear market," so from my thinking if we are "not out of the bear market" then that merely means that the odds for down are greater than the odds for up, but still does not mean that the odds for lower than $15,479 would be greater than 50%.. so maybe 40% at best.. but I still am lacking in confidence in regards to how to frame the overall picture (of odds for both up in down) in order that they add up..

I suppose that I could go back to my earlier post on the topic (that was revised December 16, 2021 and May 19, 2022) and attempt to revise it.. even though I am thinking that it would be a bit of a waste of time to go through such a process.. it would likely not help me in terms of changing any of my orders or anything (so why should I do it?  to help someone else?  I am not even sure if it would be helpful for anyone else beyond what I already did.. so people can go through their own calculations if they believe it to be potentially helpful... they can even use my earlier framing, if they consider that to potentially be helpful).
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Yeah one can never be exactly sure of a bottom… it doesn’t really matter if Bitcoin drops below 21,600 since I went all in at 17k$ Sold at around 24k$
Have a good day Jay